Scenario Planning

Scenario 01

Russia invades Zilupe, majority Russian speaking town in Latvia

Six dispatches · January to May 2027
Scenario 02

China quarantines Kinmen by coast guard inspection, without an invasion

Six dispatches · February to September 2028
Scenario 03

Iran and the Gulf states fight a war of rounds against water, gas and power

Five dispatches · March to November 2027
Scenario 04

India and Pakistan climb from a Kashmir attack to the nuclear threshold

Five dispatches · April to June 2027
Scenario 05

Ethiopia's push to the Red Sea pulls Egypt and the Nile into war

Six dispatches · February 2027 to January 2028
Scenario 06

Iran breaks out, tests, and the region begins to follow

Six dispatches · March to November 2028
Scenario 07

Grid attacks darken the capitals that deployed, in winter, below the threshold

Six dispatches · January to June 2028 · Links to Zilupe
Scenario 08

Rolling drone closures coerce an alliance apart, one airport at a time

Six dispatches · October 2027 to July 2028 · Links to Zilupe and Warsaw
Scenario 09

The easy war in Cuba comes home and strains the institutions that started it

Six dispatches · March to October 2028